The Thin End

The combination of companies abandoning 'fairtrade' commitments and the UK government's determination to scrap the DFID pose a significant threat to ethical trade.  Support for co-operatives and Fairtrade risks being diluted and diverted with Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s "reckless" proposal to scrap DFID (Department for International Development), Labour has warned. Abandoning DFID isn't a new idea.  The Tories have been targetting it for some time.  Their arguments against it are that it spends far too much money,  but there is another,  more sinister reason.  It gets in the way of trade based on poverty wages.  There lies the rub of it.   They don't really want ethics to block trade deals.  In 1997, the then Labour government set up a dedicated Department for International Development, and over the next decade, the UK development budget tripled.  Support was targeted at the poorest, with work to promote good governance, encourage gro...

The UK government incompetency has cost lives.   So many voters invested their hopes in Prime Minister Boris Johnson.  That hope has been cruelly dashed.  It will take time for this to impact in opinion polls, although the first signs of shifting public opinion are there. The Leader of the Labour party, Keir Starmer, now offers a different style of leadership.  The contrast is stark.  The rambling, incoherent dishonesty of Boris Johnson, or the clear, inciteful, yet compassionate approach of Sir Keir.   The one evokes doubt and uncertainty; the other, confidence in an ability to deliver. Faithfully doing as they were advised, UK citizens have been suckered into a strategy to protect, not the NHS, but the Tory government. Thousands of lives have been lost in so doing.  That is the tragedy. So many voters put their trust in Mr Johnson as the Prime Minister to deliver Brexit.  However, it is now apparent, he had little else to offer.  Of c...

Test, track and treat must be an essential ingredient coming out of COVID-19 lockdown.  This was acknowledged by the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, in his statement to the House of Commons today spelling out a little more detail of the strategy moving forward.  With more testing, it will be possible to predict at a more localised level in the community where infections will spread and target both community testing and more social interventions on high-risk areas in the future.  This might then prevents further national lockdown in response to any rebound of the virus.  The Prime Minister rightly refers to the R-value in informing strategy. It represents the rate of infection - or how many people can be infected by another.  At the outset, this was above 3, and anything above one means a dramatic increase in infections and deaths.  The Prime Minister also, on that basis, is right that there might be a need for differences in approach in di...

Following the PMs address this Sunday.  I have found no need to alter my earlier assumption that "the government strategy is to not have a strategy." I have come to the conclusion that the government doesn't have a strategy for easing lockdown and we, the public, are going to make it up as we go along. So, I hope you all have the appropriate skills to consider the risks. Why did the Prime Minister not make a statement earlier? He has added only confusion, where once we had clarity.  They are attempting to come out of lockdown by stealth, without testing, so we have no idea where the virus is. We have, instead, a vague ambition to increase testing. Meanwhile we will all be at risk if people are going out more and going back to work. The message was that we should stay at home and socially distance to 'save the NHS'. The truth of that is that it wasn't about saving lives, which is why initially the figures we were given didn't include deaths in care homes...

He is back. UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is back at the helm following his illness with COVID-19. At the media conference this evening, he seemed to have much of his old bounce. He had at least some good news. The UK is now turning the corner in its struggle with COVID-19. The curve of deaths appears now in a downward direction. The UK has passed its peak of COVID-19 deaths, and this is all good news. We now have a better idea of the numbers of COVID-19 deaths because we are no longer merely counting those in hospitals. Testing has undoubtedly gone up, even if it hasn't reached the target of 100,000 set by the Health Secretary. The emphasis is now turning to reduce collateral deaths (from cancer, heart disease, etc.) due to patients not accessing vital health care. We still don't know how many may die as a result of this. This needs more effort and should be a key factor now and in coming out of lockdown. It would be wrong to sacrifice cancer patients and others. After...

While the UK Government is not doing enough, our doctors and nurses are struggling at the frontline. Some are losing their lives to COVID-19. Instead of addressing the issues, the government are asking doctors and nurses to use personal protective clothing in ways that are considered dangerous. The Royal College of Surgeons has issued a statement saying that doctors should not be coerced into putting their lives at risk. Meanwhile, doctors and nurses are being gagged from speaking out about the shortages. Responding to criticism that Prime Minister Boris Johnson missed five emergency COBRA meetings, the Education Secretary said at the press conference today, Sunday: "This is a whole government effort. We are doing everything that is required, everything that is needed." Well, what is needed is PPE and testing, among other things, and on both these fronts the government is failing to do everything required. Our doctors and nurses are being asked to put their lives at f...

We have heard enough excuses from the UK government.  They keep promising to deliver on protective clothing for our doctors and nurses, and they promise to roll out testing in the population.  In both, they have failed to deliver.  In the next two weeks, we will see a massive increase in the numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths here in the UK and across the world.  We must stand by our frontline staff. They must have the protective equipment they need. We also need urgently now to roll out testing to the public so we know what is happening and who has built immunity, else we are acting in the dark.  We need honesty now from the government about the difficulties in doing that. It is vital that the authorities maintain public trust. That can only come from honesty. This is why it is vital that our doctors and nurses must be free from threats so they can also be honest in their appraisal of what is happening on the ground.  There should be...

The new restrictions announced by the UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, are thought to be vital.  But is it going to be a case of too little, too late? The prospect, unless more is done to protect those in the population who are vulnerable to the virus, is a catastrophic number of cases that would overwhelm the NHS. An  analysis by researchers at University College London,  Cambridge University, and Health Data Research, suggests that the mitigation measures already in place would not be sufficient to avoid tens of thousands of deaths caused by COVID-19 virus. Using data on underlying conditions and age in the population, the analysis suggests that without stringent measures to prevent spread, the virus will bring about between 35,000 to 70,000 deaths. These are shocking figures to contemplate - a picture of health services being overwhelmed, itself leading to further non-COVID-19 deaths. The government have identified just 1.5 million with particular under...

Prime Minister Boris Johnson was surprisingly upbeat at his news conference in saying effectively that the United Kingdom will see the Covid-19 crisis through in twelve weeks, or as he put it 'turn the tide'.   Was he right to be so optimistic? It is always good for leaders to offer hope and maintain morale, but where is Boris getting his twelve-week estimate from? Boris' twelve weeks probably comes from the modelling.   The models predict that 50% of cases will come in the first three weeks and 90% over nine weeks.  Currently, we see cases doubling about every four days, which is very much in line with the modelling. The governments objective is to delay the peak, pulling it out so that the burden on the NHS is reduced.  It is a strategy to buy time.   If it works, it might save lives because it will free up resources to deal with the severity of cases. Nonetheless, challenging life and death decisions will have to be taken by clinicians about who ...

We often hear the expression 'on top of the detail'.  The forensic analysis of instant media more often will find politicians wanting when it comes to specifics.  An interviewer comes to the studio well briefed with a specific set of details, the politician comes having to anticipate what they might be asked.  It is a game of cat and mouse, chasing around the issues. Andrew Neil on the BBC uses the technique of catching politicians on detail, or on what they might have done or said at some time in the past, long or short.  "I put it to you that....", "No, no, this is what you said in 100 AD." Does it get us anywhere? We could say that politicians should know the detail.  But is that really sensible?  Good decisions may be influenced by details, or by what is called 'fact'.  Yet, decisions are often made on a balance of probabilities and not on 'facts'. Boris is a broad-sweep politician Boris Johnson is a broad sweep politician....

It is said that Boris Johnson is 'fuming' because people say they don't trust him.  Whether or not Boris tells the truth, he certainly hides from it. He hides from a lot of things - and has been known to hide in a refrigerator to avoid interviews!  I suppose that is an excellent way to cool down! Well, now the country is flooding, and Boris is nowhere to be seen.  The country is flooding, and the minister responsible says that our flood defences are 'working'.  There's a flood! What is working about that?  Some people are chest high in water in their own homes: what flood defence worked for them? But Boris is nowhere to be seen. For all his blustering tomfoolery, Boris isn't useful in a crisis. Now, there is a good argument that he should keep out of the way.  After all, what could he do wading around in his wellington boots looking silly? Being silly has prevented him from appearing in the past. Remember that dangling fiasco on a high-wire du...

What is clear from the opinion polls is that the majority of voters do not want a Boris Johnson-led government. The Tories have flatlined at 42%. The message from the opinion polls is that you should make sure your vote counts if you want to stop Boris. If you want to protect the NHS, then you will need to stop Boris. If you want significant progress on tackling greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the environment, then Boris must be denied a majority. If you wish for action on child poverty and an end to the misery of austerity, then as a voter you will need to make sure your vote counts to deny Boris Johnson a majority in parliament. The polls show Labour is closing down the Tory lead, but with just a few more days to polling, it might not be sufficient. Votes are needed where they can impact on the parliamentary arithmetic. This is why voters in the key marginals matter. The Observer today published a poll checker so that voters can see how best they might vote if the...

Boris Johnson is running from an interview with Andrew Neil on BBC.  He also strangely avoided an interview on Channel 4, the climate debate, and is also declining interviews on ITV. The truth is, we are not seeing that much of Boris Johnson.  He prefers the set-piece photo opportunity, spending more time talking to infants than to voters.   On several occasions when he has met voters, they have taken him to task over the Tory record in government. It is little wonder he is avoiding debate. In Andrew Neil's interview with Nigel Farage, the point was rightly made by Farage that Boris Johnson's Brexit 'deal' was not being debated in the election.  Indeed, although Boris likes the slogan 'getting Brexit done', he avoids talking about his deal. There are good reasons for this.  It is a bad deal.  He knows it, and Farage tells him it is.  It is a bad deal whether you want to remain in the EU or leave it.   It is yet another issue about which Bo...

Did Boris Johnson campaign against Early Prisoner release as he claims? Boris Johnson has claimed that when campaigning to be re-elected Mayor of London in 2012, he opposed the early release of prisoners.  Is this yet another example of Boris being economical with the truth? His manifesto for the 2012 manifesto, Fighting Crime In London, said nothing about early release. Of course, like most politicians, he sounded tough on crime.  Sentences aren't harsh enough, he said.  This always goes down well with voters, who also believe that to be the case.  But nothing on early release. He does say that there are too many prisoners serving short sentences, and it would be better if they were not in prison.  Prison, he said, does them no good.  He said: "I also believe that there are too many people going to prison on short sentences, which just make them more likely to offend. By contrast those convicted of serious violence spend too little time in ga...

When it comes to crime in politics, it is easy enough to sound tough.  The honest answers usually seem 'soft'.  So, come general elections we expect to hear a tough talk on crime. Tony Blair found a beautiful message in 1997: "Tough on crime; touch on the causes of crime."  It encapsulated the need to tackle crime at its roots, rather than simply deliver tough sentences. It is perhaps inevitable that crime, once again,  hits centre stage with London Bridge Terrorist attack.  Here was a man, a convicted terrorist,  who had been released early.   The Tories seized the moment to lay blame on Labour and the Criminal Justice Act, 2003.  This, they said, set in train the early release process that led to the release of ..... It is a diversionary tactic from the scrutiny of a justice system and policing struggling through underfunding for nearly a decade of Tory rule. Boris Johnson bottled out of the proposed interview with Andrew Neil on BBC tel...

So, already the Tory manifesto pledge for 50,000 more nurses is falling apart. Nicky Morgan, The culture secretary, says that "misreading" of the Tory manifesto may have resulted in people thinking they are pledging 50,000 "new" nurses by 2024-5 if they win the general election. Indeed so, what else were we to think? It emerged 18,500 of the posts would be filled by encouraging qualified nurses to stay in the profession or return to work. NOT new nurses at all! Only around 19,000 of the posts would be filled by new nurse trainees...Ah! Trainees. Ms Morgan says: "I think there's been a confusion, people reading that as 50,000 new nurses." We don't know whether to laugh or cry. But it seems that it is our fault, not theirs. She goes on: "I think sometimes that's a deliberate confusion and sometimes that's just a genuine misreading of the manifesto. So, just as Mrs May's manifesto launch in 2017 unravelled within hour...

After all the trailblazing, the Tory manifesto for the general election is devoid of substance. It contains little to indicate an end to the misery of nine years of needless austerity or to repair the damage done by endless cuts to critical services such as the NHS, social care and children's services. So bland is the manifesto presented by Boris Johnson that one of the outstanding features is more funding to repair potholes! The Tory manifesto offers no new vision of the future, Brexit or no Brexit. There is no real picture of the new horizon that Boris claims will come from leaving the European Union. The manifesto he tells us is a "partial blueprint." Partial? Half a blueprint? A quarter? What, indeed, is an incomplete plan? Imagine building a house with only one-half of the architect's drawings. Boris Johnson is playing it safe. It was at this time in the election of 2017 that things are thought to have unravelled for his predecessor, Mrs May. ...

The poll that matters in this general election is the one on the 12th December when voters go to the polling stations or vote by post.   The opinion polls are unlikely to be giving an accurate reflection of what that vote will be. The country is more divided now than at any time in a generation.  Indeed, it is divided generationally.   Younger voters tend to be more radical and internationalist than the older generation.     How these voters vote, and whether they do vote, may determine the outcome.   Labour has a big lead amongst younger voters.  The Tories have a big lead amongst older people. But the country is also divided geographically.  This is why taking samples across the country and weighting them is more tricky than ever. What can be discerned is that the Tories are picking up Brexit party voters.  The drop of support for The Brexit Party is mirrored by the increase indicated for the Tories in polling.   But how that imp...

Being 'neutral' in any people's vote may be a game-changer. We suspect there is a nervousness creeping into the Tory party election HQ.   They have, it seems, a commanding lead in the opinion polls.  It should see them through.  Could Jeremy Corbyn's Labour pull it back? If you set out to paint your opponent as 'unfit' to be prime minister, this creates a problem when the more voters see him, he comes across as eminently reasonable.   This is what happened with Jeremy Corbyn in 2017.  It could happen again, and the next week will indicate whether this is happening. Since the election was called,  Labour has been closing the gap, slowly.   Their manifesto launch went well, and Jeremy Corbyn has performed well in both the head-to-head debate with Boris Johnson and on  BBCQT.   Boris bumbled his way through.  There wasn't exactly a knock-out blow, but focusing on Brexit is wearing thin when voters are beginning to express concern abou...

The suggestion today that Boris Johnson may not take part in a Channel 4 debate on climate change is disappointing.   The climate crisis is by far the most pressing of issues.  It is right that it should feature prominently in the general election. Voters need to know where party leaders stand, and what they propose to do about climate change and their strategies need to be scrutinised.   It is also possible that through debate the lines of agreement can be drawn where action can be taken in the event of a hung parliament.   This August,  climate campaigner Greta Thunberg called on politicians to 'listen to the science.'  What she meant, of course, was that they should stop ignoring it and start acting on it.  She was addressing climate denial, particularly amongst Republicans in the United States. Politicians have a tendency to want science that tells them what they want to hear.  But science cannot tell us how to live our lives. It can, of...