The Thin End

The virus vector for COVID-19 pandemic is a novel zoonotic coronavirus,  SARS-CoV-2,  most likely originating from bats.  One problem in combating the virus is that we know so little about it.  We don't know, for example, whether any immunity developed in humans will last, or how long it will last.  Nor do we know to what extent it jumps from species to species.  Is it possible that our livestock, or our domestic pets,  will become infected?   Whether SARS-CoV-2 can also infect other animal species is being investigated by various research institutes worldwide. The Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut (FLI) started infection studies in pigs, chickens, fruit bats, and ferrets several weeks ago.  First results show that fruit bats and ferrets are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, whereas pigs and chickens are not. The susceptibility of ferrets in particular is an important finding, as they could be used as model animals for human infection...

The sad truth is that the UK was strategically poorly prepared for COVID-19. We seem to have learnt very few lessons from previous virus pandemics. South Korea learnt those lessons, and they also followed the WHO advice to "test, test, test." We are not alone in acting too little too late.  Most European countries and also the USA appear equally ill-prepared.  Our strategies are led more by panic than clear thinking.   To fight a virus such as COVID-19 preparedness matters.  To save lives, we have to be ahead of the curve.  Most authorities are behind it. We seem to be at that point in a game, when the enemy is coming so fast that we really can't keep up with it and so we shoot, shoot, and shoot, only to find we have run out of ammunition.  The lesson is that we need the resources if a strategy is to work. A plan without resources just isn't worth the paper it is written on. Logistics matters.  We should not have frontline medical staff c...

We have heard enough excuses from the UK government.  They keep promising to deliver on protective clothing for our doctors and nurses, and they promise to roll out testing in the population.  In both, they have failed to deliver.  In the next two weeks, we will see a massive increase in the numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths here in the UK and across the world.  We must stand by our frontline staff. They must have the protective equipment they need. We also need urgently now to roll out testing to the public so we know what is happening and who has built immunity, else we are acting in the dark.  We need honesty now from the government about the difficulties in doing that. It is vital that the authorities maintain public trust. That can only come from honesty. This is why it is vital that our doctors and nurses must be free from threats so they can also be honest in their appraisal of what is happening on the ground.  There should be...

The good news is that interventions and social distancing are working.   An analysis by researchers at Imperial College London has found that, across 11 countries, since the beginning of the epidemic, 59,000 [21,000-120,000] deaths have been averted due to interventions.  Keeping up the interventions is estimated to save in the long term up to 40.6 million people who would have died but for restricting the spread.  Whilst we might be critical of the tardiness of some governments in their response to the pandemic, the message is clear; intervention works.  More needs to be done.  In the United Kingdom there is an urgent need to ensure that front-line health workeres get the protective equipment they need.   It is also vitally urgent that testing kits are rolled out as promised, not just for health and social care workers but for the population.  Many more lives can be saved if this is done.  With testing for immunity, we can get...

There are good reasons why the UK government needs to do more to roll out testing for coronavirus. First, because without doing so, we are working in the dark about the spread of the virus in the population.  Second, because those who have been infected with the virus and recovered would have built up immunity, and it would prevent unnecessary confinement. The more we get a grip on that kind of knowledge, the more people we can get back to work. The WHO was right at the outset to call for widespread testing: test, test, test.   We should not be making plans in the dark. Testing played a vital role in South Korea in their apparently successful attempts to gain control of the virus. The South Koreans introduced testing tents in the streets.   Testing wasn't an add on.  It was a vital plank of the Korean strategy. Testing can save lives.  If people are sure they are infected with the virus, then they could get treatment at an early stage and increase ...