The Thin End

Is the BBC biased politically? Yes, of course, it is. Is it intentional? That is difficult to say. All our media is biased, and sometimes significantly so. Look at the press. There are good reasons for most of it being called the 'Tory Press'. It backs the Tory party: The Daily Telegraph, The Sun, The Express, The Times, all blasting away, telling us how dreadful a Corbyn government would be. Corbyn's sin is to be too left-wing, which means he wants to bring about a fundamental change in the balance of power and privilege in British society. He wants to tackle the very inequalities of opportunity that run through our society in education, in work and in social justice. To achieve that he must challenge the elite. This means he lies outside the box of 'neutrality', and being 'neutral' means being anti-Corbyn. Corbyn challenges the yardsticks by which success is determined. Success, for Corbyn, would be to tackle poverty and inequality. Success for the...

What is clear from the opinion polls is that the majority of voters do not want a Boris Johnson-led government. The Tories have flatlined at 42%. The message from the opinion polls is that you should make sure your vote counts if you want to stop Boris. If you want to protect the NHS, then you will need to stop Boris. If you want significant progress on tackling greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the environment, then Boris must be denied a majority. If you wish for action on child poverty and an end to the misery of austerity, then as a voter you will need to make sure your vote counts to deny Boris Johnson a majority in parliament. The polls show Labour is closing down the Tory lead, but with just a few more days to polling, it might not be sufficient. Votes are needed where they can impact on the parliamentary arithmetic. This is why voters in the key marginals matter. The Observer today published a poll checker so that voters can see how best they might vote if the...

Boris Johnson is running from an interview with Andrew Neil on BBC.  He also strangely avoided an interview on Channel 4, the climate debate, and is also declining interviews on ITV. The truth is, we are not seeing that much of Boris Johnson.  He prefers the set-piece photo opportunity, spending more time talking to infants than to voters.   On several occasions when he has met voters, they have taken him to task over the Tory record in government. It is little wonder he is avoiding debate. In Andrew Neil's interview with Nigel Farage, the point was rightly made by Farage that Boris Johnson's Brexit 'deal' was not being debated in the election.  Indeed, although Boris likes the slogan 'getting Brexit done', he avoids talking about his deal. There are good reasons for this.  It is a bad deal.  He knows it, and Farage tells him it is.  It is a bad deal whether you want to remain in the EU or leave it.   It is yet another issue about which Bo...

Did Boris Johnson campaign against Early Prisoner release as he claims? Boris Johnson has claimed that when campaigning to be re-elected Mayor of London in 2012, he opposed the early release of prisoners.  Is this yet another example of Boris being economical with the truth? His manifesto for the 2012 manifesto, Fighting Crime In London, said nothing about early release. Of course, like most politicians, he sounded tough on crime.  Sentences aren't harsh enough, he said.  This always goes down well with voters, who also believe that to be the case.  But nothing on early release. He does say that there are too many prisoners serving short sentences, and it would be better if they were not in prison.  Prison, he said, does them no good.  He said: "I also believe that there are too many people going to prison on short sentences, which just make them more likely to offend. By contrast those convicted of serious violence spend too little time in ga...

When it comes to crime in politics, it is easy enough to sound tough.  The honest answers usually seem 'soft'.  So, come general elections we expect to hear a tough talk on crime. Tony Blair found a beautiful message in 1997: "Tough on crime; touch on the causes of crime."  It encapsulated the need to tackle crime at its roots, rather than simply deliver tough sentences. It is perhaps inevitable that crime, once again,  hits centre stage with London Bridge Terrorist attack.  Here was a man, a convicted terrorist,  who had been released early.   The Tories seized the moment to lay blame on Labour and the Criminal Justice Act, 2003.  This, they said, set in train the early release process that led to the release of ..... It is a diversionary tactic from the scrutiny of a justice system and policing struggling through underfunding for nearly a decade of Tory rule. Boris Johnson bottled out of the proposed interview with Andrew Neil on BBC tel...

The establishment is rattled, not so much that they believe Jeremy Corbyn will win the general election, but that the circumstances might arise where he leads a minority administration and gets the keys to Downing Street. The Tories have a substantial lead in the opinion polls, but Corbyn appears to be edging up. The establishment don't like it. It makes them nervous. The wealthiest are threatening to leave, just as Corbyn challenges their ascendancy. The wealthiest are called 'wealth creators', the poorest are called...well we can leave that to the Tories, but remember the division they tried to create between 'strivers' and 'skivers'? It is, of course, the Tories who are 'unfit' to govern because they don't govern for everyone. They are happy to keep in place a system where inequality and poverty benefit the wealthiest. That is now the establishment. If Corbyn edges up in the polls, the more likely it is that demographic difference...

So, already the Tory manifesto pledge for 50,000 more nurses is falling apart. Nicky Morgan, The culture secretary, says that "misreading" of the Tory manifesto may have resulted in people thinking they are pledging 50,000 "new" nurses by 2024-5 if they win the general election. Indeed so, what else were we to think? It emerged 18,500 of the posts would be filled by encouraging qualified nurses to stay in the profession or return to work. NOT new nurses at all! Only around 19,000 of the posts would be filled by new nurse trainees...Ah! Trainees. Ms Morgan says: "I think there's been a confusion, people reading that as 50,000 new nurses." We don't know whether to laugh or cry. But it seems that it is our fault, not theirs. She goes on: "I think sometimes that's a deliberate confusion and sometimes that's just a genuine misreading of the manifesto. So, just as Mrs May's manifesto launch in 2017 unravelled within hour...

After all the trailblazing, the Tory manifesto for the general election is devoid of substance. It contains little to indicate an end to the misery of nine years of needless austerity or to repair the damage done by endless cuts to critical services such as the NHS, social care and children's services. So bland is the manifesto presented by Boris Johnson that one of the outstanding features is more funding to repair potholes! The Tory manifesto offers no new vision of the future, Brexit or no Brexit. There is no real picture of the new horizon that Boris claims will come from leaving the European Union. The manifesto he tells us is a "partial blueprint." Partial? Half a blueprint? A quarter? What, indeed, is an incomplete plan? Imagine building a house with only one-half of the architect's drawings. Boris Johnson is playing it safe. It was at this time in the election of 2017 that things are thought to have unravelled for his predecessor, Mrs May. ...

The poll that matters in this general election is the one on the 12th December when voters go to the polling stations or vote by post.   The opinion polls are unlikely to be giving an accurate reflection of what that vote will be. The country is more divided now than at any time in a generation.  Indeed, it is divided generationally.   Younger voters tend to be more radical and internationalist than the older generation.     How these voters vote, and whether they do vote, may determine the outcome.   Labour has a big lead amongst younger voters.  The Tories have a big lead amongst older people. But the country is also divided geographically.  This is why taking samples across the country and weighting them is more tricky than ever. What can be discerned is that the Tories are picking up Brexit party voters.  The drop of support for The Brexit Party is mirrored by the increase indicated for the Tories in polling.   But how that imp...

Being 'neutral' in any people's vote may be a game-changer. We suspect there is a nervousness creeping into the Tory party election HQ.   They have, it seems, a commanding lead in the opinion polls.  It should see them through.  Could Jeremy Corbyn's Labour pull it back? If you set out to paint your opponent as 'unfit' to be prime minister, this creates a problem when the more voters see him, he comes across as eminently reasonable.   This is what happened with Jeremy Corbyn in 2017.  It could happen again, and the next week will indicate whether this is happening. Since the election was called,  Labour has been closing the gap, slowly.   Their manifesto launch went well, and Jeremy Corbyn has performed well in both the head-to-head debate with Boris Johnson and on  BBCQT.   Boris bumbled his way through.  There wasn't exactly a knock-out blow, but focusing on Brexit is wearing thin when voters are beginning to express concern abou...

The Labour Party has produced a bold manifesto.  Already there is a queue of pundits telling the media it can't be afforded.   The reality though is different.  We cannot afford not to do this.  It is a significant investment to ensure we tackle poverty, fund the health and care services, building houses hard-working families can afford while ensuring we have the right kind of investment in critical infrastructure and the skills businesses need. The IFS has already produced its own costings.  It is a balance sheet of how much the immediate costs are and where the revenue would come from.  It doesn't give the entire picture. Over time investment in bringing people out of poverty and investment in health and green jobs will itself increase tax revenue.  It will begin to pay for itself over time. I suppose voters might say, pull the other one, but history demonstrates that when governments made similar spending in the 1950s, 60s, and 70s, the nation...

It is still said by many that this UK general election is about Brexit.  In many ways it is, and no doubt Brexit, remain or leave, will influence voters.  But it hardly features in the debate at a national level. So far, Boris Johnson is not attempting to make a case for his 'deal', or for a possible no-deal exit.  On the contrary, he has been busy trying to cover up the Tories appalling record in government: failure on the environment, failure on pensions, failure on social care, failing children's services, and a crisis in the NHS and in our schools. Some might argue that such matters are of less concern if the economy was doing well after a decade of austerity, but it isn't.  The Tories have failed on the economy and, if anything, are now abandoning caution to the wind in an attempt to woo voters. "Brexit haunts the election like a ghost" One thing is missing is Brexit.  It haunts the election like a ghost, but few if any are discussing the details...

A shameful 30% of children in the UK are living in poverty, and 70% of them are children of hard-working families.    That is over 4 million children. Child poverty is increasing in the UK, and it is not difficult to see why. Tory austerity and poverty wages have pushed families into poverty. For almost the decade from 2010 to the present, child benefit – a vital lifeline for families struggling to make ends meet – has lost nearly a quarter of its value simply because it has not increased as prices have risen. Investing in ending child poverty would bring high returns to the economy. Child poverty matters - it matters a great deal because it represents a crucial link in the causes of poor health.   Childhood obesity, for example, is a significant consequence of poverty. If we wanted to tackle childhood obesity, we would also want to combat childhood poverty. But let's examine what that means.  It means ending poverty.  It means creating fairness in...

Mr Johnson: If the NHS means so much to you, why has the Tory government starved if of the funds needed to meet demand? If health matters then why have you cut funding for public health over the last decade? If children's education matters, then why have you let schools crumble? If social care matters, then why have you not funded it? If children's services matter, then why have you cut them? If local democracy matters, then why have you starved local authorities of the funds needed for their statutory duties? If you want to close the gap of inequality, then why has child poverty increased? Why is pensioner poverty increasing? Why are so many families having to depend on food banks? Why is growth sluggish after a decade of Tory management of the economy? Why is the United Kingdom at risk of breaking apart? Why oh why Mr Johnson?

Farage's deal with Boris, standing down to give the Tories a clear run in those seats they won in 2016, looks like a winning edge for Johnson, but it may backfire.  Looking across the polls there does appear to have been a shift in support for Labour. Whether it is significant and consistent remains to be seen. If campaigns do anything, then it is not surprising Labour has picked up.  The Tories have had a bad week. Johnson, far from meeting ‘real’ people and being seen out and about, has been cocooned with infants in schools or walking around aimlessly in hospital corridors – which didn’t do too well for him when confronted with patients and doctors angry about what the Tories have done to the NHS.  Corbyn, on the other hand, has had a good start. As in 2017, the more the Tory press portray him as a bogeyman, the more voters see the contrast with the man out on the stumps. He seems to have an edge with empathy, which for all his populism Boris Johnson appears to la...

It isn't difficult to see that the NHS is struggling because it has been starved of adequate funding. £22 bn of so-called 'efficiency savings' have ripped it apart. The Tories claim that funding has increased over the last decade. Of course, that is strictly true. But in real terms per capita, this is not so. The population has increased by 6%, and the proportion of older people has also increased.   In future years, the UK population is set to grow further still. The projected population surpasses 70 million in 2029 and reaches 72.9 million by 2041 – increases of 6.1% and 10.4%, respectively, from 2017 (figures from ONS). As the population increases, so will the demands on health and care services.  A negligent government misunderstands that remorseless relationship. The last Labour government pushed up spending on the NHS as a percentage of GDP following the commitment to raise the level to the average of European countries.   This saw waiting lists and times ...

After a decade of austerity, the Tories are now cynically throwing spending pledges around like confetti. Today they are pledging to increase the number of GPs.  They have made such pledges before and have failed to meet them.    Why believe them now? Staff shortages in the NHS are a significant factor in missing targets and increasing waiting times and lists.  Too many people are waiting too long for an appointment to see their GP.  Too many practices are reliant on locum supply. in 10 years the NHS will have a shortfall of 108,000 full-time equivalent nurses.  A recent report concluded that "on current trends", in 10 years the NHS will have a shortfall of 108,000 full-time equivalent nurses.   Filling that gap would require a massive 5,000 additional nurses in training each year.  It will also need an equivalent number of foreign nurses to be recruited - and this at a time when the uncertainty of Brexit has led to a loss of staff. Ther...

So, here is a political party going to the country saying they will 'get Brexit done' after three years of failing to get anything done at all. Just three years ago they said there wasn't a 'money tree'.  Now they have miraculously found one, and are in a bidding war with Labour on spending. "Anything you can do, we can do better!" Boris doesn't understand his own Brexit deal and comes up trumps in saying that Northern Ireland has got a good one because they will remain in the single market and have free movement.  If it is so good, then why give it up for the rest of the UK? This all took place with a rambling speech in Northern Ireland that made no sense either to those listening or to Boris Johnson, who looked like a stand-up whose jokes were falling flat.  It didn't help appearances to have a glass in his hand.  Perhaps it was water, or not.  So far, the Tory campaign launch seems to have been a flop.  Rees-Mogg talked about what he wou...

The opinion polls give the Tories a significant lead over Labour.  A big question is whether Jeremy Corbyn can reconnect with voters during the general election campaign.  Some might argue it is Boris Johnson's to lose, but Labour has a case if it can get its message across. Whether Labour can win or not, it is right that the party should challenge the richest to make a fair contribution to society. The Tory media attack Labour's tax policies, but their difficulty is they cannot now attack Labour's spending programme.   The Tories have also offered more public spending.   That has to be paid for. The Tories offer tax cuts to the wealthiest; Labour is more honest.  Spending plans have to be paid for, and the budget deficit dealt with.  Labour is right to target inequality. The UK has a very high level of income inequality compared to other developed countries.  Yet, the poorest are the ones who have paid for the greed of bankers. Poverty in the...

The Tories failed to deliver Brexit.  They will point to others as the cause of that failure, but it was their divisions and their lack of vision that made it impossible.   Their bluster cannot hide that truth.  Two prime ministers with two failed deals. It need not have been like this.  The Tories could have reached out to the opposition benches in parliament and delivered Brexit.   Yes, it would have involved compromise,  but it would have fulfilled the pledged to respect the referendum result. No doubt the Tories will enter the general election saying they are the only party that can deliver Brexit.  Why would voters believe them? The do or die tactics of Boris Johnson have failed to deliver.   He would not and could not have his withdrawal agreement scrutinised.   Instead, he has delayed Brexit, and there is no guarantee that the result of the general election will deliver it either.   First, Mrs May tried to use Brexit ...