The Thin End

Does politics really matter when it comes to our health?  Labour or Tory, Democrat or Republican, does it have an impact?  Of course, those who campaign for change would assume that it does. The progressive welfare policies of the Labour government after WW2, and particularly the creation of the NHS, have had a lasting impact on health and wellbeing.  The austerity imposed during the last decade under Tory-led governments has had a deleterious effect on life expectancy. Yet, we often hear that 'it doesn't matter whose in power, they are all the same.' as a political mantra.  It feeds into the narrative of general disillusion with politics and democracy.  But now, the results of a  study from the USA also suggests that party politics matters.  A new study in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine shows significantly higher infant and postneonatal mortality rates under Republican-controlled state legislatures than under non-Republican–controlled one...

The poll that matters in this general election is the one on the 12th December when voters go to the polling stations or vote by post.   The opinion polls are unlikely to be giving an accurate reflection of what that vote will be. The country is more divided now than at any time in a generation.  Indeed, it is divided generationally.   Younger voters tend to be more radical and internationalist than the older generation.     How these voters vote, and whether they do vote, may determine the outcome.   Labour has a big lead amongst younger voters.  The Tories have a big lead amongst older people. But the country is also divided geographically.  This is why taking samples across the country and weighting them is more tricky than ever. What can be discerned is that the Tories are picking up Brexit party voters.  The drop of support for The Brexit Party is mirrored by the increase indicated for the Tories in polling.   But how that imp...

The EU has agreed to an extension of article 50, in principle to the 31 January.   This gives time for proper scrutiny of the withdrawal agreement and Bill.  It also provides time for a general election and/or a referendum, although a referendum would require more time. Both Labour and the Tories are uncertain about the way forward on Brexit.  While Labour is shifting from its desire for a general election, so too are many Tories.  Nor is it clear that a general election would produce a better outcome. Putting aside party politics, the best way forward for the government is to allow time for proper scrutiny of the EU withdrawal bill.   There is now a chance that it could get it passed.  But the government has held the withdrawal bill back to avoid such scrutiny. The problem for the government is that parliamentary scrutiny is expected to see the Bill amended.  It is a fundamentally flawed Bill. It is still unclear precisely how the provisi...