The Thin End

Does politics really matter when it comes to our health?  Labour or Tory, Democrat or Republican, does it have an impact?  Of course, those who campaign for change would assume that it does. The progressive welfare policies of the Labour government after WW2, and particularly the creation of the NHS, have had a lasting impact on health and wellbeing.  The austerity imposed during the last decade under Tory-led governments has had a deleterious effect on life expectancy. Yet, we often hear that 'it doesn't matter whose in power, they are all the same.' as a political mantra.  It feeds into the narrative of general disillusion with politics and democracy.  But now, the results of a  study from the USA also suggests that party politics matters.  A new study in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine shows significantly higher infant and postneonatal mortality rates under Republican-controlled state legislatures than under non-Republican–controlled one...

All the candidates for the leadership of the UK's Labour Party have presented themselves well on the hustings. I confess to being sad that Emily Thornbury will not go forward into the final round. It bodes well for the future.  Labour has the potential for an excellent frontbench team. What is also clear is that Keir Starmer can command respect across the party. His brief as Shadow Brexit Secretary has been the most difficult of all to take on. I believe he has performed that duty brilliantly in the house of commons and it didn't surprise me that he received a resounding standing ovation during his speech at the party conference. But what he is showing now is his breadth and vision.  As a leader, Keir Starmer can unite the party and reach out to voters with a credible platform. Now, more than ever, The United Kingdom needs a robust opposition.  Boris Johnson's Tories have a commanding majority, and there is the danger that he will move towards what Lord Hailsha...

The establishment is rattled, not so much that they believe Jeremy Corbyn will win the general election, but that the circumstances might arise where he leads a minority administration and gets the keys to Downing Street. The Tories have a substantial lead in the opinion polls, but Corbyn appears to be edging up. The establishment don't like it. It makes them nervous. The wealthiest are threatening to leave, just as Corbyn challenges their ascendancy. The wealthiest are called 'wealth creators', the poorest are called...well we can leave that to the Tories, but remember the division they tried to create between 'strivers' and 'skivers'? It is, of course, the Tories who are 'unfit' to govern because they don't govern for everyone. They are happy to keep in place a system where inequality and poverty benefit the wealthiest. That is now the establishment. If Corbyn edges up in the polls, the more likely it is that demographic difference...

The poll that matters in this general election is the one on the 12th December when voters go to the polling stations or vote by post.   The opinion polls are unlikely to be giving an accurate reflection of what that vote will be. The country is more divided now than at any time in a generation.  Indeed, it is divided generationally.   Younger voters tend to be more radical and internationalist than the older generation.     How these voters vote, and whether they do vote, may determine the outcome.   Labour has a big lead amongst younger voters.  The Tories have a big lead amongst older people. But the country is also divided geographically.  This is why taking samples across the country and weighting them is more tricky than ever. What can be discerned is that the Tories are picking up Brexit party voters.  The drop of support for The Brexit Party is mirrored by the increase indicated for the Tories in polling.   But how that imp...

It is still said by many that this UK general election is about Brexit.  In many ways it is, and no doubt Brexit, remain or leave, will influence voters.  But it hardly features in the debate at a national level. So far, Boris Johnson is not attempting to make a case for his 'deal', or for a possible no-deal exit.  On the contrary, he has been busy trying to cover up the Tories appalling record in government: failure on the environment, failure on pensions, failure on social care, failing children's services, and a crisis in the NHS and in our schools. Some might argue that such matters are of less concern if the economy was doing well after a decade of austerity, but it isn't.  The Tories have failed on the economy and, if anything, are now abandoning caution to the wind in an attempt to woo voters. "Brexit haunts the election like a ghost" One thing is missing is Brexit.  It haunts the election like a ghost, but few if any are discussing the details...

The Labour Party have announced that a Labour government would take into public ownership the 'final mile' of broadband cable, currently controlled as a monopoly by BT Openreach and invest in the rollout of superfast connections for every home. This bold move was greeted with the cry of "communism!" by Boris Johnson and the Tory media. But what is happening in other countries?  Is Labour's proposal so off the rails? The answer is no. The UK is not alone in having difficulty with the rollout of broadband connections to create what is now termed the Gigabyte society. Germany's business community is concerned at the lack of progress in broadband connectivity.   Vodafone even called for the 'last mile' of cabling to be 'state-supported'. Germany also has been slow to expand its fibre-optic network, and the business community warn it will lose competitiveness because slow internet speeds as it risks holding back advances in computer-based ...

The Telecommunications industry has only itself to blame for the appallingly slow roll-out of fast broadband to the nation.   The 'market' has failed to deliver.  That isn't merely the verdict of politicians or the Labour Party. That is the verdict of the telecommunications sector. So what is the problem? One of the problems was highlighted just three years ago in an Ofcom report, but it failed to take the bull by the horns and propose radical solutions. Openreach is the division of BT that owns the fibre and copper wires that run from the local telephone exchange to homes and businesses.    The 76 million miles of cables underpins all our telecom and broadband services.     Whether or not you change your service provider, it is the same cabling.    One option is to split Openreach off from BT, and it has been an option called for by other providers such as Sky.   They say that BT has failed to invest significantly in the network...

Farage's deal with Boris, standing down to give the Tories a clear run in those seats they won in 2016, looks like a winning edge for Johnson, but it may backfire.  Looking across the polls there does appear to have been a shift in support for Labour. Whether it is significant and consistent remains to be seen. If campaigns do anything, then it is not surprising Labour has picked up.  The Tories have had a bad week. Johnson, far from meeting ‘real’ people and being seen out and about, has been cocooned with infants in schools or walking around aimlessly in hospital corridors – which didn’t do too well for him when confronted with patients and doctors angry about what the Tories have done to the NHS.  Corbyn, on the other hand, has had a good start. As in 2017, the more the Tory press portray him as a bogeyman, the more voters see the contrast with the man out on the stumps. He seems to have an edge with empathy, which for all his populism Boris Johnson appears to la...

It isn't difficult to see that the NHS is struggling because it has been starved of adequate funding. £22 bn of so-called 'efficiency savings' have ripped it apart. The Tories claim that funding has increased over the last decade. Of course, that is strictly true. But in real terms per capita, this is not so. The population has increased by 6%, and the proportion of older people has also increased.   In future years, the UK population is set to grow further still. The projected population surpasses 70 million in 2029 and reaches 72.9 million by 2041 – increases of 6.1% and 10.4%, respectively, from 2017 (figures from ONS). As the population increases, so will the demands on health and care services.  A negligent government misunderstands that remorseless relationship. The last Labour government pushed up spending on the NHS as a percentage of GDP following the commitment to raise the level to the average of European countries.   This saw waiting lists and times ...

The EU has agreed to an extension of article 50, in principle to the 31 January.   This gives time for proper scrutiny of the withdrawal agreement and Bill.  It also provides time for a general election and/or a referendum, although a referendum would require more time. Both Labour and the Tories are uncertain about the way forward on Brexit.  While Labour is shifting from its desire for a general election, so too are many Tories.  Nor is it clear that a general election would produce a better outcome. Putting aside party politics, the best way forward for the government is to allow time for proper scrutiny of the EU withdrawal bill.   There is now a chance that it could get it passed.  But the government has held the withdrawal bill back to avoid such scrutiny. The problem for the government is that parliamentary scrutiny is expected to see the Bill amended.  It is a fundamentally flawed Bill. It is still unclear precisely how the provisi...

With Brexit still casting its shadow over all else in politics, it would be easy to ignore other pressing issues, such as the future of Universal Credit. In his speech to Labour's party conference, Jeremy Corbyn, outlined a Labour policy to introduce “emergency” changes to Universal Credit as part of a fundamental reform of the welfare system.  In an immediate assessment, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has found that the specific proposals presented by Labour would increase incomes of a significant number of low-income families - and in some cases by £1000s per year.  Reversing the two-child limit in means-tested benefits would mean that about 700,000 households with children would be better off than they would otherwise have been, by an average of £3,000 per year, with a cost of about £2bn per year. Abolishing the benefits cap would benefit approximately 100,000 working-age families by an average of roughly £2,000 per year, costing around £200 million per ye...

What is Boris Johnson's strategy? Or is he stumbling from crisis to crisis, a victim of events? There are two views.  The first is that Boris is playing brinkmanship.  So many times, we have heard it said that no-deal has to be an option to force the EU to agree a deal "best for Britain."  It is a "who will blink the first" strategy.  If that is the plan, then it has failed. The second strategy is that Boris wants a no-deal Brexit and wants to blame the EU for the breakdown of the talks  "It's all their fault!"   That is what we see now - the blame game. In any event,  far from being the first to blink, the EU position has hardened.  Boris offered no sensible or workable plan to deal with the problem of the Irish border. So, now we are in the blame game.   It might have some success with hardened Brexiteers, those who want to leave the EU without a deal.   No-deal for them has become a kind of totem around which they do...

Boris Johnson is accused of using divisive language and stirring up hatred.  He doesn't care, because the division is precisely the current Tory strategy.   The Johnson strategy is the country will divide on Brexit lines; yes, he could lose some soft-Brexit Tories, but they hope to sweep up those who voted for The Brexit Party.  It is a strategy of going for broke.  What they lose on the swings they hope to gain on the roundabouts. The LibDems have also gone for broke.  They hope to gain from the division on Brexit lines, with Remainers deserting Labour.   Labour it is feared will be squeezed in the middle. Labour's only hope in a general election is that a sufficient number of remain voters will see that the only way to stop Brexit is to have a people's vote.  For that, a sensible and credible deal is needed. So, currently, the proposition for voters is: Vote Tory for a no-deal Brexit; vote LibDem to stop Brexit; or vote Labour for a negotiate...

The sovereignty of parliament is at the heart of the unwritten constitution of the United Kingdom.  It is the key element of our democracy as it has evolved.  We elect our representatives to hold the government to account, and the government is accountable to parliament for its actions.   Parliament is our legislative body.  Governments are formed from parliament and are answerable to it. This is not an invention to thwart Brexit.  It is how our democracy works.  At the last election, all the major parties campaigned accepting the vote to leave in the EU referendum, but they also were committed in their manifestos to doing so with a deal that would protect jobs and our security.   The majority voted for parties committed to a Brexit deal.  Labour's was a customs arrangement and alignment with the single market.   The LibDems offered a similar approach. Accepting the EU referendum result and outlining the type of arrang...

Jeremy Corbyn's position on a Brexit deal is a sensible one, whether or not people agree with it.  But no doubt it will be criticised from all sides.  Corbyn is set to frustrate those who wish for an entrenched position on either side of the fence. They want it all to be simple.  Either you are in or out.  Corbyn now asks an interesting question: shouldn't we wait and see what deal can really be achieved with proper negotiation?  He also dares to suppose that, with the right kind of arrangement with the EU, we "could be" better off out.   Note that he doesn't say we would be.  He simply thinks we should consider it.  After all, if we could get a "good" deal, it might make it possible to heal a divided country and rescue the United Kingdom from a constitutional crisis. Today on BBCs Marr show he teased out the distinction between those who support the EU as a matter of principle and those who want to remain but do not like the move to...