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Labour can win

The poll that matters in this general election is the one on the 12th December when voters go to the polling stations or vote by post.   The opinion polls are unlikely to be giving an accurate reflection of what that vote will be.

The country is more divided now than at any time in a generation.  Indeed, it is divided generationally.   Younger voters tend to be more radical and internationalist than the older generation.     How these voters vote, and whether they do vote, may determine the outcome.   Labour has a big lead amongst younger voters.  The Tories have a big lead amongst older people.

But the country is also divided geographically.  This is why taking samples across the country and weighting them is more tricky than ever.

What can be discerned is that the Tories are picking up Brexit party voters.  The drop of support for The Brexit Party is mirrored by the increase indicated for the Tories in polling.   But how that impacts in the key marginals is what will determine the outcome of the general election.

Labour has a vast mountain to climb.  Nobody can doubt that Jeremy Corbyn has once again electrified the campaign.  He gets enormous crowds at almost every event he attends.  If he can find a way to transfer that enthusiasm into the ballot box, then he can pull off a win.  But that is a big if.

Nerves will be frayed in both Tory and Labour camps.  The Tories will fear another upset as in 2017 when Mrs May went into an election with a commanding lead in the opinion polls.  Labour will be fearful of another 1983 election when enthusiastic crowds greeted the then Labour leader Michael Foot, but he went on to be trounced by Mrs Thatcher in the end.

Labour campaigners on the ground say they are getting a good reception,  but it is easy enough to hear what you want to hear.

The outcome of the election may also now come down to what Remain voters choose to do.  Boris has swept up the substantial body of leave voters, but significantly not all.   But many remain voters have been reluctant to back Corbyn.

In this, they reflect the attitude of the Liberal Democrats.   They should consider that they may pass up the opportunity to stop Brexit simply because they cannot bring themselves to vote for Jeremy Corbyn.

If Remainers want a people's vote, then there is really only one party who can and will deliver that.  That party is Labour.

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